Xbox Has Big Plans for Call of Duty
Reports suggest that Microsoft is set to take a Game Pass gamble with the world's top first-person shooter.
We’re currently less than a month away from the Xbox Bethesda Activision-Blizzard King Showcase Extravaganza. Hype is high and the rumor mill is starting to churn, with rumblings that The Initiative’s Perfect Dark may make an appearance along with the return of the long-running Gears of War franchise after a five-year hiatus. But beyond that, for the mainstream audience, it’s what’s after the main showcase that’ll be drawing in more eyes: The Redacted Direct, an entire presentation dedicated to this year’s Call of Duty.
At surface level, Call of Duty even being present at an Xbox showcase marks a significant changing of the guard. Activision had signed a 10-year marketing agreement with PlayStation that brought console bundles, timed-exclusive skins and modes, and plenty of debut trailers plastered with so much PlayStation branding you’d almost think that it was an exclusive - and that was the idea. Call of Duty had become so synonymous with Xbox during the 360 generation that PlayStation was willing to pay a pretty penny to lock in marketing and features that made PlayStation consoles the most appealing way to play. That deal was signed back in 2014 - which means not only is that marketing agreement null and void, but Microsoft now owns the company that signed it to begin with.
Beyond this year’s trailers having green branding instead of blue, all eyes are on the small perks that Xbox will be able to toss in to try to win back some fanfare and convince players to play their favorite shooter franchise on Xbox consoles. When Microsoft was fighting for this acquisition in court, timed content deals and exclusive modes were two of the points that were brought up in court to prove that purchasing ABK wouldn’t establish a monopoly. So if you’re expecting an Xbox-exclusive Spec Ops mode, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Instead, it seems like Microsoft is sticking to their strategy and leaning into the service that’s defined their entire generation: Xbox Game Pass.
After weeks of rumors that Microsoft was debating internally, the Wall Street Journal has reported that this year’s Call of Duty is going to be on Xbox Game Pass; and that’s a decision that comes with a lot of questions for Xbox and for players. Call of Duty is a game that is guaranteed to sell millions and millions of copies across PlayStation, Xbox, and PC every single year without fail. Even Call of Duty: Vanguard, the worst-received game in the last years, still sold a cool 30 million copies. Based on Bobby Kotick’s testimony during last year’s FTC trial, it’s fair to estimate that 8 percent of Call of Duty’s monthly active users play on Xbox. Let’s say that this year’s Call of Duty game will sell 50 million copies and that eight percent of them are on Xbox. That’s four million players, all of them guaranteed to spend $70 each on a copy of the game to generate $280 million before microtransactions and battle passes are factored in. Now the question for Xbox is, would they rather have a guaranteed income of nearly $300 million, or add this year’s Call of Duty to Xbox Game Pass, lose out on thousands of those paying players, but have a potential upswing of bringing more people into Game Pass who will pay roughly $17 per month indefinitely.
It looks like Microsoft is already planning on making some big changes to account for one of the biggest games in the world joining the Game Pass catalog. Reports are flying that new Game Pass tiers are going to be shifted around, likely with price changes to make that hit to the bottom line a little less risky. Time will tell what the actual plan is, but it could make sense to keep the existing structure of Core for the basics, Game Pass for Console and PC for players that want access to the library, Ultimate for players that want everything across every platform, and an Ultimate + Call of Duty tier.
Game Pass Ultimate is currently $16.99 per month, which is a steal for people who enjoy having some variety in the games that they play. Even as someone who takes full advantage of the service every month, that’s starting to inch higher and higher into a monthly price that’s tougher to swallow. Microsoft has two options here: try to keep it as affordable as possible, or prove the worth of a more expensive option. $20 per month for Game Pass Ultimate + Call of Duty would still be affordable, but is a two- to three-dollar increase really going to move the needle enough for Microsoft to warrant changing its entire structure? Alternatively, a $25 per month subscription would bring in just about as much additional annual revenue as a Deluxe Edition of Call of Duty, but that’s too much for the majority of players to go for without an additional carrot on the stick. Could Xbox include Seasonal Battle Passes for free? Extra discounts on in-game currency? Exclusive skins for Xbox Game Pass subscribers? Beyond that, what moves can they make to prove the value and get players in the door without triggering red flags from the FTC?
Players have questions, and Xbox has answers… or at least they will in June. No matter how you slice it, this is going to be a turning point for Call of Duty and it very well could be a turning point for Xbox. Marketing alone is a powerful tool - it effectively solidified PlayStation as the best place to play Call of Duty for the last ten years. Xbox locking down marketing rights for as long as they own Activision-Blizzard is a huge win in its own right, but now the question is how they continue to make the money back that they spent on this absolutely monumental acquisition - and how they continue to win over players in the process.